Many have been debating the “format war” between HD-DVD and Sony’s Blu-ray about who will become the (HD) high definition DVD standard, but the real HD war is just beginning. I believe the real battle begins with the term “HD” and ends with how you will be getting your content in the next few years.

First, the term HD has been tossed around as though it were the second coming of Spielberg or some other Hollywood god. High definition video is undoubtedly superior to standard definition DVD and regular TV from the last century. Beyond that blanket statement it gets very complex when you delve deep into the HD formats, sizes, standard, etc. I’ll save this for another post or just let you figure it out the hard way like I did.

Don’t believe the low bit-rate ‘HD’ lie by ZDNet’s George Ou

The new HD DVD disc formats are vastly superior and both offer a cadre of features, improvements and benefits. The solid format of a HD-DVD or Blu-ray disc provides the highest quality video ever available to the mass market to date. Regardless which format ultimately becomes the next VHS standard of our era, the picture quality when mated to a HDTV is truly amazing.

So, now that I’ve established that HD DVD discs are amazing, let’s get to the heart of how your ISP may become the ultimate killjoy and save the DVD disc format for years to come.

 

With the recent announcement of Apple TV (Take 2) and the growing list of other online video rental services including Microsoft’s XBOX Live, the demand for bandwidth and usage from your ISP is going to rapidly increase. Likewise, the ISPs are most likely going to return the favor by penalizing you in the wallet for watching those cool HD Apple iTunes movie rentals.

I’ll save you the technical details, but it’s important to note that HD videos you find from online rental services and podcasts are typically NOT full HD quality like you will see on a DVD disc. If they are, don’t expect to download them too quickly because they’ll probably be in excess of 5GB per video!

Herein lies the imminent collision course for you, the Internet rental business and your ISP.

Several reports were recently leaked and then confirmed about Time Warner introducing more restrictive and costly usage plans for their broadband Internet customers. Thanks to Johnny of the Alaska Report for bringing some of these reports to my attention.

Time Warner Trial Caps To Be As Low As 5GB/ Month by DSL Reports’ Karl
Time Warner: Download Too Much and You Might Pay $30 a Movie by NYTimes Saul Hansell

ACS, GCI and MTA will more than likely follow the lead of Time Warner and others as their 20th Century product demand continues to dwindle. The local companies have investments in dial tone telephone, cable TV and other businesses that ultimately compete with their own Internet services. This self-conflict already shows with the current rules, pricing and plans that most local ISPs offer in Alaska.

Here’s the breakdown on usage limits for the major consumer ISPs in Alaska.

ACS

  • Currently advertised on their site as unlimited.
  • Not the greatest performance from their DSL just yet.
  • Probably requires a 1 year commitment.
GCI
  • GCI’s plans are very complex and vary quite a bit by location, but here’s the general rule for the major markets:
    • Up to 25GB for the highest cost plan.
    • Unlimited is available, but you have to commit to a bundle of services you may not want (cable TV, local phone, long distance minutes). This is a defense plan designed to force you into buying everything in order to get the all you can eat Internet.
    • One way or another they want that $200/mo. per household.
    • 1/2 of 1 cent per MB charged for every MB used over your monthly included usage.
  • One downloaded movie could cost up to $25 (if already over the usage limits).
    • 5,120Mb/2 = 2,560 x $0.01 = $25.60

 

MTA

  • Most plans are set at 10GB per month.
    (that’s about 2 HD videos from Apple TV or XBOX Live)
  • Unlimited usage will cost about $160/mo. for 768/768K, not Mbps, Kbps. (trust me, I pay it every month)
  • One movie could cost up to $75!
    • 5GB x $15/GB = $75 (rent two at this price and you can buy a new HD-DVD player)

Closing thoughts…

 

I have intentionally left AT&T and Clearwire out of this comparison, only because I am attempting to illustrate the companies that have the greatest risk of losing other parts of their business (voice, long distance and entertainment) to their own ISP services.

In closing, a word to the wise - look closely at the services you buy and whether or not an Apple TV, XBOX Live rental or other web based downloads is worth the cost. A $40 rental may be in your future just by unwittingly downloading a few movies and surfing the web.

Physical, not virtual still prevails. If more ISPs react like Time Warner and continue to tighten the noose on bandwidth, you can bet that DVDs will have a bright future. Will the digital age eventually overtake the disc format, sure it will - but at what cost?

As much as I love the on demand world and hope that an independent ISP were available, for now I will enjoy my HD-DVD in all its 1080i goodness. For less than $40 I will own the movie, watch it as many times as I like and get loads more features than you’ll ever find via the current Internet options.

While I’m thinking about it…you can get a killer deal on a Toshiba HD-DVD player and movies right now from Amazon.com. I bought one of the Toshiba HD-A3 models and have absolutely enjoyed the quality and features of the “true HD” movies.